Week Ahead: a run of elections while the WTO gathers in Abu Dhabi

Hello and welcome to the working week.

2024 is the year of elections and the next seven days offer us a rich crop of voting, with varying degrees of legitimacy.

On Tuesday, Israelis go to the polls for local elections. The US presidential election primary roadshow has pitched up in Michigan and later that day the voting begins. You can read more about this and other twists and turns in the Republican and Democrat campaigns from the Financial Times’s Washington reporter Steff Chávez in the US Election Countdown newsletter.

Iranians will also elect new representatives in their parliament on Friday.

The day before that brings another British by-election in a seat previously held by a Conservative. This one is different, however. The campaign to be the new representative of the north-west English mill town of Rochdale has become one of the most toxic in modern British political history. The all-male list from which voters will choose features two candidates ditched by their respective parties because of comments about Israel and Palestine, one sacked previously by Labour for sending sexually explicit photos to a teenager, and the firebrand George Galloway. Our UK news team will have full coverage as the result arrives.

Another evolving UK news story has been the Post Office IT scandal, and this Tuesday MPs will take evidence from former Post Office chair Henry Staunton, current chief executive Nick Read and former sub-postmasters, including campaigner Alan Bates.

This is also the week of the WTO Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi. My colleague Alan Beattie will be providing insights in his latest Trade Secrets newsletter (for premium subscribers), out tomorrow. The death of global trade owing to the rise of populism and geopolitical shifts has been greatly exaggerated, but some roadblocks will definitely not get fixed this week, according to Alan. Sign up here to get Trade Secrets in your inbox each Monday.

We are approaching the end of the corporate reporting season, but you can expect a trickle of results with construction and food as the biggest themes, plus multiple central banker speeches. Another theme for this week is industry conferences with the annual mobile telecoms industry gathering at MWC in Barcelona and the Geneva International Motor Show.

One more thing . . . 

Some good news for at least the top half of the planet this week: meteorological spring is coming. And we will be getting an extra day to do something with given it’s a leap year.

This could be an ideal time to book a spring break — mine is going to be a long weekend in the delightful English county of Suffolk. But don’t just take my word for it, read the HTSI holiday guide.

What are your plans for the next seven days, and what do you think is worth highlighting? Email me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this in your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden opens the Bank of England Agenda for Research (BEAR) conference in London. Keynote speakers include Bo Becker, a professor at the Stockholm School of Economics, and Juliane Begenau, associate professor of finance at Stanford University.

• Israel: interest rate announcement

• Spain: MWC Barcelona, the world’s largest event for the mobile telecommunications industry, begins. Speakers include Vodafone chief executive Margherita Della Valle and Dell Technologies chair and CEO Michael Dell.

• Switzerland: the 2024 Geneva International Motor Show opens, running until the weekend.

• US: new home sales figures

• Results: Bank of Ireland FY, Bunzl FY, Domino’s Pizza Q4, Fidelity National Information Q4, SBA Communications Q4, Zoom Q4

Tuesday

• Bank of England deputy governor David Ramsden speaks at AFME Bond Trading, Innovation and Evolution Forum in London.

• Germany: GfK Consumer Climate survey

• Israel: local elections. Public holiday and financial markets closed.

• Japan: February consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• UK: British Retail Consortium’s February Shop Price Index

• US: January durable goods orders data

• Results: Abrdn FY, AES Corp Q4, Agilent Technologies Q1, ASM International Q4, Bouygues FY, Coface FY, eBay Q4, Lowe’s Cos Q4, Smith & Nephew FY, Unite Group FY, Woodside Energy FY

Wednesday

• Bank of England monetary policy committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the FT’s Future Forum online event.

• FT Live Business of Football online conference kicks off.

• Australia: January CPI inflation rate data

• Germany: monthly retail sales figures

• Hong Kong: financial secretary Paul Chan Mo-po presents the 2024-25 Budget to the Legislative Council.

• New Zealand: RBNZ official cash rate decision

• US: revised Q4 GDP growth figures

• Results: Aston Martin Lagonda FY, Groupe Casino FY, Co-operative Bank FY, HP Q1, Just Eat Takeaway.com FY, Paramount Global Q4, Reckitt Benckiser FY, Salesforce Q4, St James’s Place FY, Taylor Wimpey FY, TJX Q4, Universal Health Services Q4, Universal Music Group Q4

Thursday

• China: NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• France: Q4 GDP figures, plus February CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data.

• Germany: February unemployment figures, plus CPI and HICP inflation rate data.

• India: Q3 GDP figures

• US: January personal spending and PCE price index data.

• Results: Adecco FY, Air France-KLM FY, Anheuser-Busch InBev FY, CVS Group HY, Getlink FY, Haleon FY, Hammerson FY, IAG FY, London Stock Exchange Group FY, Man Group FY, Mobico FY, Ocado FY, Schroders FY, Serco FY, Weir Group FY

Friday

• Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at Cardiff University Business School.

• Adriana Kugler, member of Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Ford Motor Company chief executive Jim Farley, Nvidia boss Jensen Huang and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice speak at Stanford University’s SIEPR Economic Summit.

• Takeover Panel deadline for Julian Dunkerton to either announce a firm intention to bid for Superdry or say he does not intend to make an offer.

• Brazil: Q4 GDP figures

• Canada, China, EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/Caixin/HCOB manufacturing PMI data

• EU: Core February CPI and HICP inflation rate data

• South Korea: Independence Movement Day. Financial markets closed.

• UK: Bank of England publishes statistics for Q4 on external business of monetary financial institutions operating in the UK. Also, February Nationwide House Price Index.

• US: University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

• Results: Pearson FY, Rightmove FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Hungary: National Assembly votes to ratify Sweden’s bid to join Nato with the vote expected to pass.

• Kenya: sixth session of the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA) opens at the UNEP headquarters in Nairobi, running until Friday.

• UAE: WTO Ministerial Conference begins in Abu Dhabi, running until Thursday.

• Ukraine: Day of resistance to the occupation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol by Russia in 2014.

Tuesday

• Brazil: first Brics finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in São Paulo.

• UK: Former Post Office chair Henry Staunton, current chief executive Nick Read and former sub-postmasters, including campaigner Alan Bates, will give evidence to MPs on progress on redress to the Horizon IT scandal victims.

• US: Michigan presidential primary elections.

Wednesday

• Brazil: G20 finance ministers meet in São Paulo to prepare for the annual presidential summit in November.

• UK: campaign group Liberty begins a legal challenge at London’s High Court over new police powers that broaden the definition under English Law of “serious disruption” in relation to peaceful protests.

Thursday

• Leap Day adds an extra date to the month of February to accommodate the leap year in the Gregorian calendar.

• UK: Rochdale by-election. Also, Keir Starmer: The Biography by Tom Baldwin is published by William Collins.

Friday

• 70th anniversary of the first hydrogen bomb test on Bikini Atoll in the Marshall Islands.

• 40th anniversary of the UK’s National Coal Board announcing the closure of Cortonwood Colliery in South Yorkshire, triggering the 1984 miners’ strike.

• First day of meteorological spring.

• The UN Security Council monthly presidency rotates from Guyana to Japan.

• Iran: parliamentary elections.

• UK: St David’s Day, celebrating the patron saint of Wales.

• US: latest deadline for a new funding deal to avert a partial government shutdown in Washington. Also, President Joe Biden’s son Hunter is to appear for a deposition with House Republicans for their impeachment inquiry into his father.

Saturday

Sunday

• 100th anniversary of the Ottoman Empire ending.

• El Salvador: municipal elections.

• UK: annual rail fares increase comes into force.