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The US has drawn up a draft plan to end the war between Israel and Hizbollah, calling for an initial 60-day ceasefire and the withdrawal of the Lebanese militant group and Israeli troops from southern Lebanon.
But the proposal would also give Israeli forces the right to target Hizbollah “in self-defence against imminent threats to Israel” and allow its war planes to continue flying over Lebanon for “intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance”, according to a draft leaked to Kan, Israel’s state broadcaster, on Wednesday evening.
The leak came hours before US envoys Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk were due to arrive in Israel to discuss Washington’s efforts to end the more than year-long conflict. They were expected to present an updated version of the document to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to people familiar with the matter.
“There are many reports and drafts circulating. They do not reflect the current state of negotiations,” National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said.
Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed “cautious optimism” about the possibility of an imminent ceasefire.
“Hochstein suggested that we could reach an agreement before the end of the month and before November 5,” Mikati told Lebanon’s Al Jadeed television on Wednesday, referring to the date of the upcoming US elections. “We are doing everything we can.”
But people familiar with Lebanese government thinking said the draft was “still unacceptable,” since annexes would give Israel the ability to fire in “self-defence” at Lebanon and to ensure that Hizbollah “cannot reconstitute” in the south. A US “side letter” to Israel in the draft agreement reaffirms these principles.
“Israel can’t claim control over the south and air space,” said one of the people. A second person said that while the draft as written was “not workable” it could provide a basis for further negotiations.
“It is very difficult for Lebanon to accept such terms and Israel knows that,” said Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center. “Even though the Lebanese state is weak, I cannot see any of the political parties in Lebanon agreeing to a compromised sovereignty, including the anti-Hizbollah crowd.”
Two people familiar with the matter said the leak, on the eve of the White House officials’ visit, appeared designed to damage the talks — or at the very least to delay their conclusion until after the US election next week
“I would assume that in leaking this draft, which the US says does not reflect the current status of discussions, Israel is trying to torpedo the negotiations now” while also “setting a higher bar” to resume negotiations following US elections, Yahya said.
Although weakened by Israel’s offensive, Iranian-backed Hizbollah — which triggered the conflict by firing on Israel in the wake of Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack — remains Lebanon’s dominant political and military force.
Hizbollah’s new leader Naim Qassem said in a televised speech on Wednesday that the group would accept an end to the war should Israel want that, “but it will be on our terms”. Until there was a proposal on the table “we continue the fight and will not beg for a ceasefire . . . We will remain on the path of war.”
The US has for months been leading diplomatic efforts to end the conflict and avert an all-out war across the Middle East. The hostilities escalated in September after Israel assassinated Hizbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, launched waves of air strikes across Lebanon and invaded the country’s south.
Washington’s push for a deal has focused on getting the warring sides to agree on the implementation of UN resolution 1701, which ended their last war in 2006. It called for the withdrawal of Hizbollah from Lebanon’s southern border with Israel and the end of Israeli flights over the Arab state. But it was not fully implemented by either side.
Under the terms of the US draft proposal, the US would have a greater role in overseeing the implementation of the deal, including the initial two-month transition period as the chair of an international “monitoring and enforcement mechanism”. This would also monitor any future violations once a permanent ceasefire is agreed.
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would deploy to the south and work alongside an existing UN peacekeeping force in the region. During the initial 60 days, Lebanon would be obliged to “dismantle and confiscate all military assets, arms and infrastructure of all non-state armed groups in southern Lebanon”.
Israel would agree to a phased withdrawal of its troops from southern Lebanon in “no longer than” seven days after an agreement was reached.
Israeli officials say their prime goal is to ensure northern Israel is safe to allow the return of some 60,000 Israelis forced from their homes by Hizbollah rocket fire.
Residents of the ancient town of Baalbek in eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley have meanwhile been ordered to evacuate by Israel as it launches air strikes in the area, and Israeli ground forces have continued their push further into the country’s south.
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