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Donald Tusk is on track to secure power in Poland, with the former European Council president gaining the upper hand over the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party in parliamentary elections billed as the most important in a generation.
Tusk, a former prime minister, claimed victory for the opposition, led by his Civic Platform party.
PiS, led by Jarosław Kaczyński, appeared to be on the brink of losing office after almost all the votes were counted, failing to obtain a majority even with a far-right party as its coalition partner.
Official results after 95 per cent of voting districts were tallied on Monday evening showed PiS had won 37 per cent of the vote, with Civic Platform at 29.1 per cent and its likely coalition allies, the centre-right Third Way and the leftwing Lewica party, a combined 22.8 per cent. The far-right Confederation only secured 7.2 per cent. The results were in line with two exit polls which projected that PiS would not secure a majority in Poland’s lower house, the Sejm.
Poland’s currency and stock market rallied strongly on Monday in anticipation of a potential Tusk comeback. The Warsaw WIG index was up 3.5 per cent, while the zloty jumped 1.9 per cent against the euro before settling to trade 1 per cent stronger on the day at 4.49 zlotys to the euro.
During the campaign Tusk pledged to put Warsaw back on a firm pro-European path, restore judges’ independence and unlock billions of euros in EU funding withheld by the European Commission during a spat with the PiS government over judicial reforms.
The vote has emerged as the EU’s most significant election this year, potentially redefining, after years of feuding, the relationship between Brussels and the largest member state in central and eastern Europe.
“This is the end of bad times. This is the end of PiS rule,” Tusk said on Sunday night to cheering supporters. “We did it, for real. Poland won, democracy won.”
At PiS headquarters, Kaczyński told supporters on Sunday that a way still remained for his party to start a third term in office. “Ahead of us are days of fight and various tensions,” said the ultra-conservative leader. “We must have hope and know that, regardless of whether we are in power or in opposition, we will implement this project in different ways.”
PiS is expected to be granted the first opportunity to form a government by President Andrzej Duda if results confirm that it remains the largest party in parliament.
Turnout was on track to set a record since Poland’s return to democracy, according to preliminary data from Ipsos. It projected that voter participation reached nearly 74 per cent, the highest in more than three decades, surpassing the 63 per cent in the historic 1989 vote that toppled communism.
By contrast, only 40 per cent of voters — not enough to be binding — took part in a referendum called by the PiS government. Tusk had called for a boycott. The referendum asked voters questions about reinforcing border security, curbing illegal migration, keeping the existing retirement age and blocking sales of state-owned companies to foreign investors.
Over 600,000 Poles also registered to vote from abroad – almost double four years ago. But the government set a limit of 24 hours after Sunday’s poll closure to count overseas ballots, raising the possibility that some would fail to get registered in the final tally.
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