Has the S&P 500’s recent correction triggered a new bear market?

There’s a 40% chance that the stock market’s recent correction will turn into a major bear market.

Last Friday the S&P 500 SPX entered correction territory by closing more than 10% below its July 31 high. The U.S. benchmark index would have to fall by another 10 percentage points to satisfy the semi-official definition of a bear market.

The…