Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Chinese equities have surged to their best week since 2008 after Beijing launched an economic stimulus package including a $114bn war chest to boost the stock market.
The CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed companies is up 15.7 per cent for the week in its best performance since November 2008, when China announced a similar stimulus package in response to the global financial crisis.
The rally, which has also helped buoy European markets and industrial metals, comes as China’s leadership rushes to support the country’s capital markets, stabilise a property sector crisis and boost domestic consumption in order to meet its economic growth target of 5 per cent for the year.
On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China unveiled an Rmb800bn ($114bn) lending pool for the country’s capital markets, comprising funds to lend to companies to buy back their own shares and to lend to non-bank financial institutions such as insurers to buy local equities.
The CSI 300 index closed up 4.5 per cent on Friday while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 3 per cent, up more than 12 per cent since the start of the week in its best weekly gain in at least two decades.
“We are at a pivotal moment for the Chinese economy and its equities market,” said Nicholas Yeo, head of China equities at Abrdn, who said in a note that the US Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut would also be a significant tailwind.
“Global easing conditions are poised to bolster consumption, which is a boon for China, the world’s largest exporter.”
Hopes for more stimulus in China helped lift European stocks. The region-wide Stoxx 600 hit a fresh record high on Friday, pushed higher by luxury groups that would benefit from stronger consumer spending in China.
The China rally followed Wall Street gains after the S&P 500 closed on Thursday at a record high for the third time this week, with equities climbing ahead of Friday’s inflation report.
Chinese authorities in August restricted the daily northbound data through the Hong Kong Stock Connect programme that shows foreign investor flows into mainland stocks.
But Citi said the past three days were “the busiest period for Citi’s equities sales and trading team in the Asia region, with record client flows” into Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange put out a notice on Friday warning investors of “abnormally” slow transaction speeds as a result of frenzied morning trading, said two people familiar with the situation.
“We can’t dismiss this as the same old policy,” said Winnie Wu, equity strategist at Bank of America. “This is the first time that the government is encouraging leveraged investment in the stock market. A liquidity-leveraged rally should still have significant room to go.”
David Chao, a global market strategist at Invesco, said the rally in Chinese stocks could be sustained. “China markets are about momentum, and I see certain parallels between the existing rally and that of the 2014-15 rally,” when Shanghai’s index rose about 150 per cent between June 2014 and June 2015 but then collapsed.
Chao added that, as the dollar continued to weaken on the back of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, he predicted “possible rotation out of the expensive and crowded global tech trade into cheaper [emerging market] assets”.
The stimulus measures this week have propelled most commodity prices higher, with the notable exception of oil, which has been damped by news of Saudi Arabia preparing to increase output.
In particular, industrial metals such as copper, aluminium and zinc, of which China is a huge consumer because of its vast manufacturing sector, have surged, building on a rally that started earlier this month.
Copper, which is used heavily in the final stages of construction for electrical wiring, has gained more than 5 per cent since Tuesday to break through the $10,000 per tonne mark and reach its highest level in three months.
For iron ore, a steelmaking ingredient, the stimulus measures have helped trigger a rebound after a slide in price to a two-year low that was largely driven by weak consumption of steel.
“In a commodity where expectations were negative, such as iron ore, this marks a clear turn,” said Colin Hamilton, commodities strategist at BMO. “We see this as a clear reflation trade, but the question will be whether it is enough to boost weak consumer sentiment.”
Read the full article here